http://www.isaiadis.com/2008/01/19/common-fallacies-of-logic-and-rhetoric-by-carl-sagan/ Discussions on science, skepticism, pseudoscience; trips on the borders of religion and science; brief adventures in hi-fi; this is a Journey through a Burning Mind... Sat, 19 May 2012 16:53:26 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 http://www.isaiadis.com/2008/01/19/common-fallacies-of-logic-and-rhetoric-by-carl-sagan/comment-page-1/#comment-81184 Babi bang Mon, 11 Jul 2011 08:45:06 +0000 http://www.isaiadis.com/2008/01/19/common-fallacies-of-logic-and-rhetoric-by-carl-sagan/#comment-81184 holalala jingalala i,m Babi Bang .I love to watch cheeeeeti cheeeeti bangbang http://www.isaiadis.com/2008/01/19/common-fallacies-of-logic-and-rhetoric-by-carl-sagan/comment-page-1/#comment-52380 I like truth Sat, 04 Sep 2010 23:37:12 +0000 http://www.isaiadis.com/2008/01/19/common-fallacies-of-logic-and-rhetoric-by-carl-sagan/#comment-52380 "I don’t think he fully thought this through before sideswipingly impugning the intellect of the brilliant General Officer and great American President, Dwight D. Eisenhower, whom history will always recognize as one the foremost men responsible for the victory of the allies in WWII." Perhaps Sagan should have fit in something about not worshiping idols to this list as well.
Perhaps Sagan should have fit in something about not worshiping idols to this list as well.]]> http://www.isaiadis.com/2008/01/19/common-fallacies-of-logic-and-rhetoric-by-carl-sagan/comment-page-1/#comment-46483 fabianse Sun, 16 May 2010 00:19:44 +0000 http://www.isaiadis.com/2008/01/19/common-fallacies-of-logic-and-rhetoric-by-carl-sagan/#comment-46483 Ok, I admit that the statistical thing is too much for my destroyed brain. But the list of fallacies sounds like a good guidance :) ]]> http://www.isaiadis.com/2008/01/19/common-fallacies-of-logic-and-rhetoric-by-carl-sagan/comment-page-1/#comment-8111 I Like Ike Tue, 09 Sep 2008 23:17:30 +0000 http://www.isaiadis.com/2008/01/19/common-fallacies-of-logic-and-rhetoric-by-carl-sagan/#comment-8111 If someone had said to President Eisenhower that half of the population was less bright than the other half, I doubt he'd have been astonished, except at the temerity of the person taking the President's time for the purpose of telling him such a noninformative thing. Presumably Eisenhower did not assume a mere tautology was being reported to him in the situation. The term "average" can refer to arithmetic mean, to the median, or to the mode (most often occuring). In the reported instance, President Eisenhower probably visualized something like the bell curve, and probably recognized that it should be the case that most persons were around average, which in fact was and is the case. So, presumably, he thought it was being reported to him that the top of the curve was lower than at the 50% mark, or that the curve was not an even bell curve, but was skewed toward the lower end, which would indeed be alarming. Why would anyone think he needed to be told that 50=50? I like Carl sagan, but I don't think he fully thought this through before sideswipingly impugning the intellect of the brilliant General Officer and great American President, Dwight D. Eisenhower, whom history will always recognize as one the foremost men responsible for the victory of the allies in WWII.
Presumably Eisenhower did not assume a mere tautology was being reported to him in the situation.

The term “average” can refer to arithmetic mean, to the median, or to the mode (most often occuring).

In the reported instance, President Eisenhower probably visualized something like the bell curve, and probably recognized that it should be the case that most persons were around average, which in fact was and is the case.

So, presumably, he thought it was being reported to him that the top of the curve was lower than at the 50% mark, or that the curve was not an even bell curve, but was skewed toward the lower end, which would indeed be alarming.

Why would anyone think he needed to be told that 50=50?

I like Carl sagan, but I don’t think he fully thought this through before sideswipingly impugning the intellect of the brilliant General Officer and great American President, Dwight D. Eisenhower, whom history will always recognize as one the foremost men responsible for the victory of the allies in WWII.]]> http://www.isaiadis.com/2008/01/19/common-fallacies-of-logic-and-rhetoric-by-carl-sagan/comment-page-1/#comment-1864 Stavros Sat, 17 May 2008 12:19:33 +0000 http://www.isaiadis.com/2008/01/19/common-fallacies-of-logic-and-rhetoric-by-carl-sagan/#comment-1864 David, thanks for the comments. However, I think you might have missed something here. The mean IQ should be 100 in a large enough population. This is true especially considering that the scores are adjusted to express the average improvements in population intelligence over time -I am not sure about the USA though :-). Therefore, from the curve that describes the IQ distribution, approximately half of the population should be on the left side of 100 (i.e. less than average) and half should be on the right side of 100 (more than average). Hence, Eisenhower's astonishment is NOT logical since this is going to be the normal distribution in pretty much all large populations!
However, I think you might have missed something here. The mean IQ should be 100 in a large enough population.

This is true especially considering that the scores are adjusted to express the average improvements in population intelligence over time -I am not sure about the USA though :-).

Therefore, from the curve that describes the IQ distribution, approximately half of the population should be on the left side of 100 (i.e. less than average) and half should be on the right side of 100 (more than average).

Hence, Eisenhower’s astonishment is NOT logical since this is going to be the normal distribution in pretty much all large populations!]]> http://www.isaiadis.com/2008/01/19/common-fallacies-of-logic-and-rhetoric-by-carl-sagan/comment-page-1/#comment-1855 David Sat, 17 May 2008 06:47:22 +0000 http://www.isaiadis.com/2008/01/19/common-fallacies-of-logic-and-rhetoric-by-carl-sagan/#comment-1855 Speaking of below average intelligence, I should have proof-read my submission. Change "purporst" to "purports" and change "well less than half" to "well over half". http://www.isaiadis.com/2008/01/19/common-fallacies-of-logic-and-rhetoric-by-carl-sagan/comment-page-1/#comment-1854 David Sat, 17 May 2008 06:35:59 +0000 http://www.isaiadis.com/2008/01/19/common-fallacies-of-logic-and-rhetoric-by-carl-sagan/#comment-1854 I know this isn't your list but I must point out that "Misunderstanding the nature of statistics (President Eisenhower expressing astonishment and alarm on discovering that fully half of all Americans have below average intelligence!)" demonstrates exactly what it purporst to describe - a misunderstanding of the nature of statistics. Let's say that there are a total of 10 Americans. Nine have an IQ of 90 and the tenth has an IQ of 150. The average IQ is 96. Therefore nine (well less than half) of all Americans have IQ less that the average. Eisenhower's astonishment was entirely reasonable and logical.
Let’s say that there are a total of 10 Americans. Nine have an IQ of 90 and the tenth has an IQ of 150. The average IQ is 96. Therefore nine (well less than half) of all Americans have IQ less that the average.

Eisenhower’s astonishment was entirely reasonable and logical.]]>